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Thursday
Sep202007

Betting on a Labor Victory - Australian Politics

1855_animado.gifBetting on a Labour Victory Australian Politics is really quite exciting at the moment - exciting because after eight years of John Howard and his Gang of Five it looks like there's going to be a new Labor Government sworn in - probably before Christmas. Halleluyah! Another right-wing right bunch of bastards bites the dust. But don't take my word for it - check out an expert opinion from Simon Jackman who says -

Labor ahead in a majority of seats. For some time, there has been a marked contrast between the seat-by-seat markets and the national market. Labor has been ahead in the national market for several months, but the thinner seat-by-seat markets have not told the same story, with Labor tipped to win in less than a majority of House of Representatives seats. That changed this week. In the midst of a broader market tilt towards Labor, Deakin crossed over into favouring Labor, making Labor tipped to win in 76 seats, a majority in the 150 seat House of Representatives.
In the national market, Labor moved from an average probability of winning of .66 to .73, its strongest position to date.
This .73 probability roughly corresponds to the market position of the Coalition in the last three days of the 2004 campaign.
Bennelong did briefly cross over into favouring Maxine McKew at the height of the week’s turmoil at some agencies. By week’s end, and averaged across the 3 agencies I am following, Howard remained odds-on to retain his own seat, but just barely. For example, at lunch time Friday, Portlandbet.com had the Bennelong market priced at 1.85/1.80/101.00 (ALP/Liberal/Other), an implied probability of a Labor win of about .49.
For all the talk about Liberal Party private polling showing Eden-Monaro looking good for them, the market doesn’t seem to agree. The 3 agency average probability of a Labor win in that seat went from .59 last Friday to over .67 on Wednesday, where it has remained.
Top 10 market moves through the week, measured by change in implied probability of a Labor win. Note that 9 are of these seats are Liberal held, although Macquarie is notionally Labor after the last redistribution.

jackman148.jpgSimon Jackman is Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, in California. Born and raised in Brisbane, he has published widely on Australian politics, electoral systems, and public opinion in Australian and international journals. Since 1988, Jackman has been based at American universities (Rochester, Princeton, Chicago, and since 1997, Stanford).

Sportingbet Australia says the coalition was now at its longest odds of victory since taking office more than a decade ago.

"Punters across Australia have reacted to the news that a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello by pouring further money behind a Kevin Rudd and a Labor victory"
Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said.

The odds on Mr Rudd becoming Prime Minister have narrowed to $1.30, while they have drifted out to $3.60 for the Howard-Costello team, the coalition's longest odds in the past 11 years.

"In years of betting on the federal election, we haven't seen a political party written off by punters the way Howard and the coalition have been in the past two months. It's unprecedented"

Betting on a Labor Victory - Australian Politics.

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